This was part of Technological Innovation in Health Care Delivery

Medicine and Uncertainty: Decision Making in Medicine

Radek Bukowski, University of Texas, Austin

Tuesday, May 16, 2023

Abstract: Medicine is, in essence, a decision making under uncertainty. Decisions about the choice of tests and treatments. Under uncertainty, because there are no perfect tests or treatments. Therefore, a good decision is not one resulting in a good outcome but one with the highest probability of success. Unfortunately, the estimates of those probabilities are subject to cognitive biases and shortcomings of the traditional statistical approach. The result is the “crisis of reproducibility” of medical evidence and, in consequence, suboptimal decision-making with resulting negative impacts on individual health, healthcare, and the economy.